So You Wanna be The Blazers

Looking at the saddest teams in the NBA, they can pretty neatly be divided into two categories. Rebuilding teams and trainwrecks. The "Thunder", Memphis, and Minnesota all have reasonably talented young cores that are struggling to find traction. Kevin Durant, Russel Westbrook, and that crew is a talented big man away from looking like a team that could go somewhere (lets just hope Blake Griffin goes somewhere else). Marc Gasol, OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay need a strong bench and some some cohesion on the offensive end but maybe they'll go somewhere. Turning to Minnesota, a team still reeling from the loss of Kevin Garnett, I think there's even less evidence of some sort of sure path back to .500 basketball. Al Jefferson shines and rookie Kevin Love has been steadily improving but they need to find a backcourt star.

This is seperation by degrees but the three of these teams are looking for two main components: defense and more options on offense. Durant, Mayo, and Jefferson will be prolific scorers on their own but you need a second, third, and ussually a fourth option as well: Kobe, Pau, Bynam, Odom; Pierce, Garnett, Allen, Rondo; James, Williams, The Big Z; Roy, Aldridge, Rudy, Outlaw. With a weak draft, it may mean another season of waiting for these teams. The "Thunder" may make a run at the playoffs next year (according to some) but I don't see it. The western conference is absolutely stacked, who are they going to bump off? The only teams who have a serious possibility of deteriorating are.... Utah? New Orleans? Dallas? Maybe if NO has a fire sale but aside from that it just doesn't add up.

Moving on to the trainwrecks: Clips and the Kings. The Wizards are excused (injuries) as is Golden State (they have Anthony Randolph and they don't play defense). The Kings have Kevin Martin and the Clips have Zach Randolph, Baron Davis, Al Thornton and Eric Gordon. The Kings have such a lack of talent and, on paper, the Clips have so much its so strange that they manage to blow a season like this one. The dichotomy between these two teams says something because they have such different inputs and end up with the same result. Where they'll go in the future, nobody knows. I'm sure all 4 Clippers fans are looking forward to anything other than this season though.

The way the league shifts, slowly, from year to year is something worth noting. The free agent and draft pick system results in teams with more money generally winning more and teams with less money winning less. Looking at successes (Jazz, Blazers) and works in progress ("Thunder", Memphis) tells us something about what works and how to build a winning team in this league. I'm not sure what that is yet though.

For My Extranious Relatives Who (Oddly Enough) Don't Follow the NBA Religiously

     Heading into the NBA Playoffs (Where Will Amazing Happen This Year and so on), you can seperate the Western Conference into six distinct groups. On top, of course, sit the Lakers. Kobe is currently chasing the Cavs for home court advantage throughout the playoffs but it doesn't seem to be in the cards this year. Cleveland plays Indiana and Philly, having only lost once to either of those teams. Both of those teams (who I frequently confuse with each other) simply don't have what it takes to beat the Cavaliers at this stage in the game. The Cavs also play Boston at home, which is a losable game but a different post than this one. Boston and Orlando have sunk far enough that the Lakers frankly don't have much to worry about as long as they pick up their game against the Grizzlies.

     Below the Lakers, you have the Nuggets. Despite lottery predictions, the boys from Denver seem to have finally found something that works: a quality, veteran PG in Chauncy who is willing to distribute rather than complain (Gotta love Allen Iverson). Not surprisingly, they have a solid frontcourt in Melo and Nene (and Chris Anderson?!?!). They play pretty solid defense (7th in the league) and they push the pace. They don't rebound well but aside from that, they can punish you in a lot of ways. They are red hot lately, winning 13 of their last 14. Because of this, really, they now occupy the spot that San Antonio had for most of the year: in some kind of limbo between the rest of the pack and the Lakers.

      After Denver, you begin to wade into the thickness that is the Western Conference playoff race. Currently, The Spurs, The Rockets, and The Trail Blazers are all tied in the standings for third. Given San Antonio's recently injuries (Manu) and setbacks (Duncan's knees), it seems like San Antonio can't hope to hold on to a tie with the Blazers and the Rockets. Its very possible at this point for the Rockets to win out and, I suppose, for San Antonio.  After shaky play against the Blazers last night, however, I just have a hard time believing that the Spurs can beat both Utah and New Orleans - I would bet a nickle they drop one of those games. Of course, the Blazers in no way have an easy road to the end either. Big home games against the Lakers and Denver are challenges but anything is possible in the Rose Garden. Unless the Spurs can't hack it, the Blazers are going to have a real uphill battle finding home court advantage in the playoffs. While I think it seems a distinct possibility that San Antonio drops a game or two, that's really the only shot Portland has at home court.

    Moving on down the line, New Orleans, Utah, and Dallas occupy another slot behind Portland, Houston, and San Antonio.  The Hornets currently lead by a game but Utah and Dallas are only 3 games behind the group above them. You can find an asterix on each of these teams as to why they are where they are: Utah can't win on the road against quality teams, Dallas couldn't find itself early in the season, and New Orleans simply had more injuries than average this year. That leaves them all scrambling not to face LA in the first round. Utah has the easiest scheduling for this last week, facing only 2 quality opponents while NO faces 4 quality opponents and Dallas faces 3 (NO and Dallas play each other twice).  Mark Cuban aside, I still think Dallas ends up the 8 seed. Utah could fall that far but I just don't see New Orleans sliding that far. 

Out of the playoffs for the first time since the industrial revolution, the Suns (along with the Big Shaqtus) are looking in. I wouldn't be surprised if you see a serious detonation of the Suns roster given how much they've slid. Unfortunate that it happened under Terry Porter, a former Blazer but what can you do.

    Below the Suns, you have the garbage... excuse me, rebuilding teams of the west. Golden State, Minnesota, Memphis, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers (see what Zach Randolph does to a team?), and Sacramento. Golden State has gained some traction this year but they nothing to distance themselves from the rest of these teams really. OK City has developed a lot since the first half of this season but they still just can't function cohesively. I'd probably put Memphis and Minnesota in that catagory as well. The Clips and the Kings are still struggling to find a serious way to rebuild. In any event, look for the Thunder, Memphis, and Minnesota to improve next year though I can't say where those wins will come from.

    In the end, it'll be tough for any team in the playoffs to advance past the Lakers. Certainly possible but it doesn't seem that probable. Maybe Houston, maybe Denver, maybe Portland but that would be a tall order for any of those teams. We'll just have to wait and see.